According to a research report by Guotou Futures on October 8th, the current crude oil market is in a game of geopolitical risk premium and supply repair. Gulf supply has recovered to about 90% of pre war levels, Saudi Arabia has lowered official prices, G7 will release 100 million barrels of strategic reserves, and oil prices have fallen from high levels. However, the uneven recovery of supply, severe lag in the repair of the diesel supply chain, damage to Middle Eastern refineries, export restrictions from Russia, and insufficient refining capacity have kept the price difference of diesel cracking at an extremely high level, becoming the core of the risk premium rising instead of decreasing. EIA has raised its fourth quarter oil price forecast. The market is concerned about the second escalation of the Middle East conflict, the sustainability of cross-strait passage, and inventory approaching the bottom line. The uncertainty intensified in October, and the trading logic shifted from the panic of crude oil supply interruption to the structural shortage of refined oil and the misalignment of supply chain normalization. Under the triangular game of loose crude oil, tight supply of refined oil products, and difficult geopolitical premiums, oil prices are likely to fluctuate widely at high levels, and any disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Mandeb, or Middle Eastern oil facilities may amplify the volatility of near end contracts.