According to CCTV News, on October 7th local time, the US Central Command stated that earlier that day, a general of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that "the Strait of Hormuz has been closed" and claimed that the country has "complete control" over the strait, which is untrue.

Prior to this, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Advisor Nagdi stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and Iran will block the "illegal passage" of the strait until Iran's legitimate demands are met. Nagdi stated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the Iranian armed forces have full control over it.

On the 9th local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement stating that the navy officers and soldiers of the Revolutionary Guard Corps responded to the Iranian people's demand for sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and would not allow any aggressive troops to station here. They would resolutely crack down on the enemy's attempts to undermine Iran's management of the strait.

The completely opposite statements from the United States and Iran have drawn attention from the outside world to the actual navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

On October 8th, international oil prices rose sharply, with Brent crude oil futures briefly breaking through $105 per barrel during trading. On October 9th, international oil prices fell slightly. On that day, Brent crude oil futures fell to $102.60 per barrel, and US WTI crude oil futures fell to $90.18 per barrel.

 Yui Torikata revealed that the latest preliminary data shows that on average, at least 10 commercial oil tankers and dry bulk carriers pass through the strait every day.

The Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, with at least 10 commercial oil tankers and dry bulk carriers passing through daily

NBD: On October 7th local time, a senior official of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that "the Strait of Hormuz has been closed" and claimed that Iran has "complete control" over the strait. According to Kpler's latest ship tracking data, are there still commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz? How many ships are there approximately per day?

Yui Torikata: Kpler data shows that currently, on average, at least 10 commercial oil tankers and dry bulk carriers pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. This number has decreased compared to the daily average of over 20 ships in the previous 10 days.

But currently these are only preliminary statistics, and as we obtain more sources of information such as satellite imagery and market information, we may revise this number upwards.

NBD: From the ship navigation data mastered by Kpler, how can we more accurately describe the current state of the Strait of Hormuz?

Yui Torikata: Given the recent intensive attacks on commercial vessels, with 10 commercial vessels attacked each week, the Strait of Hormuz is still open but in a highly risky state for navigation.

NBD: How much has the current ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz decreased compared to normal levels before the conflict? Has the scale of navigation reached the level of 'de facto commercial shipping interruption'?

Yui Torikata: Crude oil is currently the main commodity transported through the Strait of Hormuz, followed by refined oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

During the week of September 28th to October 4th, the average daily crude oil transportation volume through the Strait of Hormuz reached at least 11.6 million barrels. This number has decreased by 17% compared to the previous week, but is still comparable to pre war levels (note: according to IEA 2025 statistics, crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is about 15 million barrels per day). At the same time, there are only a few liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait may maintain a highly risky navigation status

According to Xinhua News Agency on October 7th, Iran's Fars News Agency reported that Mohammad Reza Nagdi, senior advisor to the Commander in Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated that a few "illegal waterways" in the Strait of Hormuz are about to be closed.

Although the Strait of Hormuz is closed, there are still people using small boats to 'smuggle' oil and transport it to oil tankers, "Nagdi said.

NBD: Iran has mentioned that it will close "illegal waterways". Based on the ship trajectories tracked by Kpler, is there currently a situation where some waterways have been effectively blocked while other waterways are still passable?

Yui Torikata: Although non Iranian ships are still passing through the Strait of Hormuz, these ships will turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals, making it difficult to accurately track their specific routes.

However, according to reports, these ships are escorted by the US Navy, and existing satellite imagery shows that they appear to be sailing through Oman's territorial waters. Satellite images captured the passage of ships through Oman's territorial waters. Oman's territorial waters are currently the main route through which these ships pass.

NBD: Considering that some ships may turn off AIS (Automatic Identification System), change their tracks, or experience signal loss, how does Kpler estimate the actual ship traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz at present? Is it possible that the currently released data may underestimate the true scale of traffic?

Yui Torikata: Most non Iranian ships do not send AIS signals when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, we need to integrate evidence from different sources, such as satellite imagery and market intelligence, including port loading plans and delayed AIS signals, to fully restore the current actual situation as much as possible.

Due to the delay in obtaining data resources such as satellite images, some commercial satellite image suppliers are also restricted from releasing images of the region. Therefore, our statistics on the recent navigation situation should be considered as preliminary data and the lower limit of the actual navigation volume.

NBD: According to the latest data from Kpler, is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz further deteriorating or is there already a sign of recovery?

Yui Torikata: Preliminary data shows that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is decreasing.

However, this number is still in our verification process, and as more data resources are obtained, the relevant statistical results may be revised upwards.

In addition, last week's crude oil transportation levels indicate that Middle Eastern Gulf oil producing countries have shown strong resilience in continuously delivering crude oil to customers. Therefore, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain in its current state: still open, but in a highly risky state of navigation.